It is so inconvenient when a macro event forces it's way into your micro life. I'm so over this virus thing and it is just beginning. It has pushed back plans for us to move, it has put on hold me taking some time off from the working world, and it has altered my daily routine. I'm sure any of you with kids is now feeling the Corona bite now, with them being at home, regardless of if this is a "real" thing or not.
Stats on this thing are garbage both here in the USA and abroad other than understanding trends perhaps. The USA stat I give a little credence to is the number of new deaths. We clocked in at 11 yesterday. Which is interesting as only 10 cases were listed as serious. It is a horrible thing if you are one of the ones who died, or a loved one. But comparatively of all the things that can kill you in this world Corona Virus is a relatively minor threat* (I'll come back to that). Many are teeing off of that, calling just the flu, media hype, or a conspiracy theory to take down the economy and thus Trump. Social media pundits are busy throwing stats comparing what is most likely to kill you out telling everyone not to worry. Some are citing the 14 emergency hospitals shutting down as evidence that the original epicenter (China/Wuhan) is now under control. The threat is receding, or so the pundits claim.
The problem is that China has decided to reboot their economy. First with forced labor from the Ughar (spelling?) minority. So yes we can once again, maybe, be able to enjoy cheap stuff at big box stores and the economic engine to fuel a rising authoritarian regime that is antagonistic to almost everything the USA on it's best day stands for. The mainstream labor force in China is now joining back into the work force. Everything good right?
Well that miracle of containment is now starting to show some weaknesses. Death counts and new cases are starting to rise again. Is the authoritarian Chinese regime rebooting too early? The draconian measures of sealing in whole apartment complexes and the forced isolation of millions of people did work. But that also shut down China inc. Now that things are kicking off again, we may have wave two in China. Early indicators are that is exactly what is happening. New cases and new deaths are rising...not nearly like before, but the reboot is in it's early stages. What the future holds we don't know yet.
South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and others have also won early victories against Corona. Hopefully these will hold. Some countries like Singapore might have some unique characteristics that allow them to keep a lid on the virus easier. A few other countries like Thailand have just decided to not test and label probably Corona cases, which could be in the 6000 range, as viral pneumonia rather than Corona and for now call it good.
Anyway, I digress. Why isn't this the flu? The early death rate sited as 1% is incorrect. In Italy and Iran right now it is much higher than that. But some would argue those are the diagnosed cases, there are probably many more cases that go undiagnosed because for many the symptoms are minor. This actually isn't a plus in some respects as this means many go around spreading the disease without even knowing they have it. So let's say the real death rate (on average, individual health circumstances impact individual chances a lot) is .1. So far is is on an exponential growth rate of doubling about every 3 days in the USA...but again we are talking about a very small number of cases compared to the overall size of the USA, and lack of testing makes it hard to extrapolate what is going on for sure. But it appears from the official stats (again garbage other than for trends) that Corona is indeed spreading exponentially. So let's take that optimistic .1 death rate. Let's say measures taken reduce the spread from a predicted eventually 70% of the population down to say 10%. What does that mean?
32 million infections. That is 32,000 KIA. Just like the flu right? Yeah...if every restaurant is closed, schools closed, social distancing enforced, most travel domestic and international banned, for a good chunk of time. If not you can add at least another zero on to that death number. Unlike the flu this virus has already wiped out about 16 trillion from the global economy as of today and will continue wipe out jobs, savings, companies, and opportunity for a long time to come. And it may just be getting started.
The one point of optimism is the real death rate might even be lower, like .01. Then with all of the above we would be looking at something like 3200 deaths, minor in the scheme of things. Looking at Iran and Italy I think we can rule that .01 rate out. Heaven help us if it is the 3.6 number that appears to be what is happening in Italy. And yes, Italy has one of the oldest populations in Europe. But no, it isn't only the old with co-morbidity symptoms that are dying there, like some are saying. Yes they smoke. But their population on average is probably healthier than our fast food over stressed under slept population.
This is a big deal. This isn't the flu. If you are still thinking that you are not paying attention. But ironically, maybe that is a good thing. As stress lowers immune responses. Ignorance might help you live. I have a feeling though it is going to be hard to remain ignorant for long.
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