Well, you will have to take my word on this as I could be making this all up. But here were my predictions for 2014 (found them on a thumb drive tonight). Totally missed Ukraine, the drop in oil prices, and the rise of ISIS. The rest...close, but I didn't exactly go out on a limb. See my previous post for predictions on 2015.
1) Dust up between China Japan...US does nothing, maybe show of force
2) No war in the middle east (other than smaller war between Israel / Hezbollah)
3) Political gains for teaparty against dems and RINO republicans, how significant I don't know
4) Continued disaster of Obamacare calls for "single payer" vs the old system
5) Gov debt will go to almost two trillion in 2014
6) Continued accelerated trade deficits
7) No financial collapse but continued misery
8) Interest rates and inflation will begin to rise but not crisis levels
9) A lot of talk, not much done
10) More gun control efforts / registration
11) Watered down amnesty passes
So how did I do? Well fail like I said on Ukraine, ISIS, and the drop in oil prices. Those are pretty big fails off the bat, so that be default puts me in the rookie league. Let's analyze the rest.
1) Yes there were some dust ups, and even a US show of force in some joint exercises with Japan, but not really to the scale I was thinking, I give myself a zero there.
2) I'll give myself .25 of a point there. There are many active conflicts but no declared wars which was what I was getting at.
3) Spot on. 1 Point.
4) I'll give myself .75 points there. Debate has started but overshadowed by other things.
5) Yep. 1 Point
6) Yep. 1 Point
7) Yep. 1 Point
8) Yeah...again .75 points. Inflation is rising but only in some asset classes, still deflation pressures
9) Meh, I'll ignore this one.
10) Yep. 1 Point
11) I'll give myself 1/2 a point even though it still hasn't officially passed, it all but has in name only with Obama's executive moves and Congress capitulating.
So I missed three big ones...-6
And I got some easy ones partially right or right: +6.75
A prestidigitator for 2014 I was not...
No comments:
Post a Comment