On Iran

Well, it looks like war was avoided for a few minutes. Great for the world. The biggest loser in all this is the poor Ukrainian airline that was shot down or crashed with the loss of about 120 people near Tehran last night. It could be unrelated but the timing is very suspect.

So does that mean we are in the clear? Here is the problem. Our current policy for Iran is regime change through economic pressure, and to some extent it is working. It is wounding the Iranian regime (and the Iranian people). What do wounded animals do when cornered? They strike out. I also because of our long history with Iran I do not see this policy changing, so there is no real negotiable peace while we are defacto trying to topple their regime. Not saying this is the wrong or right policy, just acknowledging what is. I do think Iran could change our policy by making some changes internally and with how they conduct themselves asymmetrically abroad. There is a small ray of hope here. I think their attack showed they really don't want to engage us as it was mostly symbolic, we were watching them bring out their missiles and fuel them up so we had plenty of warning, and I'm not even sure the Iranians were really trying to hit anything. And their usual suspect controlled militias in Iraq have been mostly sidelined. So maybe at the top levels of Iran there is some internal thought going on how maybe the best way for the regime to survive is to change. Us actually removing one of their hard line terror supporting generals even though it sparked this whole event might help enable that self reflection.

As to the USA, I do not think there is any plan for a boots on the ground war against Iran. If anything there is a bit of naivete that if it comes to it an air war would be all that is needed. The previous administration announced most military deployments loudly, the Trump administration does not. But you can't start deploying a lot of air and ground assets without family members posting on social media, and so far we are only seeing very modest US military deployments in the region. Watch the subs, watch the carriers, watch the air wings. There are some that have moved and moved publicly but not at this time not seeing anything indicating large deployments for any sort of sustained bombing campaign. Ultimately the USA militarily regardless of what Trump says is much weaker in depth than it was even in Gulf War II in 2003. The navy just stress tested it's sea lift capabilities and the results were really bad for example. We have the capabilities in the region to hit Iran hard a few times but from what I see (which is limited) we aren't getting ready for any long term thing. I think Trump really is trying to get the USA out of the middle east but there are a lot of interest invested there and he is fighting with his own administration to get it done, thus it will be a more slow withdraw than would be helpful.

If Iran was smart, they would let us leave and be all smiles. China and Europe will buy their oil, and neither have any real interest in stopping Iran's nuclear or territorial ambitions. By playing nice Iran could get some sanction relief as well. Their only dark horse would be Israel, who would make their clandestine nuclear development difficult.

My take on events. A lot of history here. The region will not be stable anytime soon. War is in Iran's court...I think they have more to gain by biding for time and letting the US detangle from the Middle East and thus get more out of their way and business, but that is the smart play. I'm not sure Iran is smart nor with their regime rapidly weakening if they have the time or will to wait. Might be easier to lash out in the hopes that a war will shore up support for the regime. We get to see. But it is encouraging that their revenge attack was symbolic...it might be showing that Iran wants to talk and make a deal, and that is good for the world. But things are still on a razors edge over there. Pray for peace!

And what is the best play for the USA? We need to get out of forever wars. I think Trump is wise to this. But because of the nature of the middle east I don't think you can ignore it completely. But you can cut down your exposure there as much as possible. Some will scream that Russia and China will fill the vacuum. A bummer but so is spending trillions and seeing 1000's of US lives lost there too. Not sure what the right balance is I skew heavily towards getting out more than staying in. Let others try to do what no one except Alexander the Great has been able to do and even then it was a different world and he only pulled it off for a short period of time. I love Israel but God has their back, they aren't going anywhere, they don't need us as much as either of us think they do. We can continue to support them while limiting our expose as well.